Slowing down of the Bulgarian economy: What does the OECD report indicate?
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has published an updated forecast, according to which the growth of the Bulgarian economy will slow down to 2.5% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. The reason for the slight downward adjustment is higher inflation, rising energy resource costs, and weakening domestic consumption.
The conflict in the Middle East is becoming a major risk to global growth, increasing inflationary pressure and weighing on economic activity, the OECD warns.
Key conclusions for Bulgaria:
- Inflation: An average annual value of 4.3% is expected in 2026.
- Investments: Public spending and European funds remain the main drivers.
- Budget deficit: Exceeds 3% of GDP due to social spending and investments.
- Necessary reforms: Focus on energy efficiency, the green transition, and fiscal consolidation.
Global scenarios: Optimistic vs. pessimistic
The OECD presents two scenarios in the "Economic Outlook" report:
- Scenario 1 (Limited shock): The energy market stabilizes from mid-2026. Global growth will be 2.8%.
- Scenario 2 (Prolonged shocks): Persistently high energy prices and supply shortages. Global growth would collapse to 2.1% in 2026.
OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann urged countries to direct fiscal support only to the most vulnerable groups, while simultaneously maintaining incentives for energy efficiency so as not to accumulate additional public debt.