On the one hand, statistics show that Bulgarians plan to cut their spending by about 10% compared to last year, driven by caution. On the other hand – winter resorts report an 85% occupancy rate as early as the end of November.
The price shock of the festive table
If Santa Claus were shopping in a Bulgarian supermarket this year, his sleigh would probably be lighter. The data of the National Statistical Institute (NSI) for the autumn of 2025 are merciless: the annual inflation is chasing 5.6%, but the "inflation of feeling" is much higher. Basic products for the table register double-digit growth – cucumbers have become more expensive by almost 17%, and peppers by over 9% in just one month.
Even more alarming are the data from the Commission for the Protection of Competition (CPC), which revealed speculative markups, reaching up to 135% for mineral water and 91% for kashkaval cheese. This raises the logical question: to what extent are these prices market prices and to what extent are they the result of the lack of effective regulation before full integration into the Eurozone?
Offer hunters: Consumer behavior is changing
According to this year's Deloitte Holiday Retail Survey, the mantra of the 2025 season is "value." The Bulgarian consumer is becoming more pragmatic. The time of impulsive purchases is passing, giving way to planned shopping.
An interesting trend is the entry of technologies in this process – studies show that a significant percentage of young people (Gen Z) use artificial intelligence to compare prices and find the best offers. This is a sign of market maturity, which is increasingly approaching the Western European model of behavior.
Bonuses: Who will get a gift under the Christmas tree?
The income picture before the holidays is fragmented. The good news comes from the private sector – according to the Bulgarian Chamber of Commerce, nearly 80% of companies are planning Christmas bonuses, despite the economic stagnation. This is a clear signal that businesses value their staff and are trying to compensate for the inflationary pressure.
In the public sector, the situation is more heterogeneous. The employees of the Ministry of Interior will receive about BGN 400, which is less compared to previous years, while in the judicial system the bonuses can reach one salary. Social division remains a sensitive topic, as the debates on "Christmas allowances" for pensioners have once again turned into a political coin, instead of a sustainable social policy.
The euro: The hope for stability
Against the backdrop of these economic turbulences, the upcoming introduction of the euro from January 1, 2026, seems like the necessary anchor for the Bulgarian economy. The dual pricing, which is already a fact in stores, although sometimes frightening, is the first step towards transparency.
The experience of other countries shows that the adoption of the single currency is the strongest tool against local market distortions and speculation. Therefore, despite the current difficulties, Bulgaria's pro-European course is the only one that guarantees that the next Christmases will not be hostages of local trade monopolies and uncertainty.
Conclusions
Christmas 2025 will be a holiday of contrasts – between the full hotels and the careful counting of cents in the store; between modern digital shopping and outdated pricing practices. But perhaps the most important gift that Bulgaria will "unpack" very soon is full membership in the club of rich economies, which promises that this transitional period will soon be a thing of the past.
Summary: While Bulgaria counts the days until the introduction of the euro, the Christmas holidays in 2025 are shaping up to be a test of endurance. Inflation in food and reduced consumption contrast with full hotels and corporate bonuses.