The Flu Returns: An Epidemic is Already a Fact in Some Regions, Peak Expected in January

23.12.2025 | Bulgaria

The number of flu cases in Bulgaria is increasing, with an epidemic already declared in some regions. The peak of the illness is expected in January. Experts are warning of a stronger flu wave, which is linked to mutations of the flu virus. Vaccines remain effective despite the mutations.

Снимка от Prefeitura Campinas, Wikimedia Commons (Public domain)

The number of people infected with the flu is increasing, and there are already regions where we can talk about an epidemic. This year, the first positive tests appeared earlier than usual, but it is only now that there is an increase in patients compared to the same period last year. It is still not too late to get vaccinated.

There are the most cases in the region of Pernik. The number of positive tests is also significant in Gabrovo and Varna. The average morbidity for the country is 1,112 per 10,000 people, which indicates an increase compared to last week.

The peak of the wave is expected in January. In the West, it is called the "super flu". H3N2, subtype K is the strain that already dominates. Literally within months, several mutations appear, which are the reason we expect a stronger flu wave this season.

Prof. Nelly Korsun - National Center for Infectious and Parasitic Diseases: This is how the mutations actually look. A changed amino acid compared to the vaccine virus. In Bulgaria, we have many proven viruses of this type, and our isolates are currently being sequenced to determine whether they belong to this genotype, which caused such a high morbidity in European countries.

Prof. Iva Hristova - National Center for Infectious and Parasitic Diseases: A stronger wave can definitely be expected, especially considering what is happening in the United States, in the United Kingdom, where morbidity is much higher than the previous year and, accordingly, there is a considerable number of hospitalizations.

Behind this door is the isolation ward where children with the flu are treated in the capital's pediatric hospital. The cases are still isolated, but the more complicated patients come here - those with concomitant diseases.

Dr. Natalia Gabrovska - Head of the Clinic of Pulmonology at "Prof. Ivan Mitev": An increase in flu morbidity is already being felt. We expect the peak in January, especially after the holidays, when more people, children and adults, gather.

Despite the mutations, vaccines still protect to some extent from a more severe course. The flu can hardly be confused with another respiratory disease, as it develops literally within hours.

The characteristic symptoms are high fever, cough, fatigue, muscle and joint pain.