Global food prices will rise faster in the coming months and keep climbing in 2027, says Maximo Torero, chief economist of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
He blames wars that disrupt shipping and an El Niño-linked drought that cuts harvests. Poor households in low- and middle-income countries in the Middle East, North Africa and Asia are the most exposed, because food takes a bigger share of their budgets.
Torero says the food system is under growing strain. Prices will rise fastest at the end of this year and the start of next. Until now, record world grain stocks and good earlier harvests have softened the blow, but that buffer is wearing thin. As a result, higher raw material costs could feed through more strongly to the price of the final product.
Food prices have been rising since the end of 2025. In September the FAO food price index averaged 136 points, its highest since November 2022. World Bank data show that in the third quarter food prices rose faster than overall inflation in 22% of the 150 countries it studied. A quarter earlier, the share was 14%.
Wheat has risen by more than 30% in 2026. In the main Asian exporting countries, rice costs 10% to 13% more, even though stocks are large. Fertiliser prices have fallen from their peak at the start of the war with Iran, but they remain high.
Shoppers are already feeling it. In Egypt, bread sold without a state subsidy is up by a quarter: a large loaf cost 4 Egyptian pounds in July and now costs about 5. In the UAE, cooking oil is up by about 40%. In Indonesia, vegetable oils are 7% dearer than at the start of the year, even though it is the world's biggest producer of palm oil.
In India, sugar, onions and pulses rose by more than 10% in September from August because of weaker output. Sugar is at a record high after the weakest monsoon in more than a decade. Drought is also cutting harvests in Southeast Asia, and Indonesian rice is at record prices because the rainy season is expected to start later.
Attacks on grain infrastructure in the Black Sea are disrupting wheat supplies, so Egypt and Indonesia are looking for other suppliers. Because of the uncertainty in the Red Sea, ships sail around Africa on longer and costlier routes. The US and Israeli war against Iran pushed up fuel prices and made it harder to export fertiliser through the Strait of Hormuz.
Shipping on some routes, including from the Black Sea to Southeast Asia, has become about 50% dearer because of pricier oil and higher insurance. According to Kpler, a company that tracks ships, wheat deliveries to Indonesia in September fell 41% year on year to 491,000 tonnes. The head of a flour milling company in Jakarta said several mills in Indonesia are not running at full capacity because supplies have dropped due to the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Food processors usually sign contracts for three to six months, and they are now renewing them at higher prices. Weaker local currencies push costs up further. Manish Tiwari, chairman and managing director of Nestle India, believes inflation, especially in food, is already a fact, and the tough market is partly due to costlier raw materials. Franciscus Welirang, a director at Indonesia's biggest food company, PT Indofood, said transport has become dearer, and the weaker rupiah adds to the effect when costs are converted.
Alexander Karavaytsev, senior economist at the International Grains Council in London, warned that a big new wave of demand could come in a few months. Importers from the Middle East and Africa, who put off buying because of good local harvests, will then return to the market. He says the risk of further price rises is significant. Forecasts for wheat in the Southern Hemisphere are good, but worse expectations for Australia and Argentina would push prices up.
Higher prices raise the risk of unrest and may push big exporters to limit exports, which would worsen supplies. Shrinking stocks and the gradual passing of higher costs on to buyers could also set off a new rise in inflation.
Stocks of soybeans and maize are enough for now, and future supply depends on harvests in the US and South America. Costly oil also lifts demand for them to make biofuels.