The plan sent to the European Commission has no steps to deal with overdue debts owed to the National Revenue Agency (NRA), BNB governing council member Lyubomir Karimanski told BNT. He said the treasury could receive more than 800m from these claims.
Each year the NRA fails to collect some of the money owed to it. Karimanski says Bulgaria needs a clear plan to raise collection, meaning the share of taxes due that reaches the budget.
The medium-term fiscal-structural plan was adopted in 2025 by the previous regular government. Bulgaria is under the EU's excessive deficit procedure because its 2025 deficit is above 3%. It had to submit a plan to the Commission by 15 October. The Commission has set out recommendations and requirements for the four-year plan.
By August the deficit was about 2.8%, according to a calculation based on data from the Finance Ministry and other bodies. Karimanski does not expect it to pass 5% by the end of the year. Official figures for September will come out by the end of October.
Karimanski does not expect the state to spend its planned capital spending, meaning money for construction and investment, by the end of the year. He sees enough reasons why the state will fail to invest that much. Since the government took office, the use of this money has grown, but not fast enough to reach all projects. The investment programmes are included in the 2026 budget.
He said the economy can take only so much investment, and that limit cannot be jumped. He compared it to a thirsty man in the desert: the first glass of water tastes best, but he cannot drink more than 10.
Karimanski thinks the plan does not show the whole budget. It is not as detailed as the state budget, which lists money for each first-level spending unit, meaning the ministries and agencies that spend directly from the budget, including the Defence Ministry. For defence, the overall figures are known, but there are no details on individual costs.
The BNB board member fears that what the plan leaves out goes to the heart of the Commission's recommendations. The Commission wants to see how public spending will fall, mainly pay in security and defence, which is set by old automatic rules. The plan has no text saying these automatic rules will be scrapped in the budget, and it is unclear how that will happen.
Karimanski said it makes no financial sense for public sector pay to be fixed in special laws instead of the state budget. This must change, he said.
The other thing the state must weigh in its spending is how well the public sector serves citizens. Teachers' pay is due to rise, while unions are protesting. Karimanski asked when the unions and everyone else were asked about the quality of teaching, given that teachers' pay rises every year while PISA and other international tests rank Bulgaria among the lowest for functional literacy.
The windfall profit tax is only now about to be applied. Karimanski asked how exactly the "2020-25" base was set.
In 2025 Bulgaria's debt grew by 6.1%. Karimanski said that is when the problem with it got worse, and that the rise is a big sum.
He also rejected claims that the capital of the Bulgarian Development Bank was ever cut. After the €2bn increase by the regular government, the capital has not been reduced, the BNB board member said.