The biggest problem for Bulgaria's state social insurance fund is not collecting contributions. It is the long-term pressure on spending from an ageing population and the current rules, said Ivaylo Zdravkov, deputy head of the National Social Security Institute (NOI).
Zdravkov spoke at the national research conference "Current Problems of Insurance and Social Security – 2026" in Svishtov, where he presented a report titled "Structural Imbalances and Fiscal Sustainability of the Consolidated Budget of the State Social Insurance Fund, 2020-2025". The D. A. Tsenov Academy of Economics organised the conference.
The analysis covers the fund's income and spending over the past 6 years. It uses official statistics and NOI publications.
Zdravkov said the fund's own insurance income has grown steadily in nominal terms. He gave these reasons: a stable job market, higher pay, low unemployment and a healthy economy. He said steps to bring business out of the shadow economy also helped.
"There is a clear link between the steady rise in contributions to the fund and the average monthly insurable income. That income has been driven up by higher average wages and by higher minimum and maximum insurable income limits," Zdravkov said.
Spending on long-term payments is growing faster than income and directly feeds the structural deficit, the report says. It is rising because of deliberate decisions to raise older people's incomes and make pensions more adequate.
The yearly pension increase pushes up the average monthly pension. Higher minimum pensions for people who worked, higher non-contributory pensions, and one-off extra payments made over the years add to this.
Spending is also growing because new pensions are higher and because many pensions of working pensioners have been recalculated.