Almost total consensus among corporate leaders: 99% of senior managers surveyed by the consulting firm "Mercer" expect that the implementation of artificial intelligence will lead to staff layoffs within the next two years. The data is interpreted as a clear signal that the intention of large corporations to restructure their staff around automation is no longer an experiment, but a sustainable strategic line.
The study is summarized in the "Global Talent Trends 2026" report and covers nearly 12,000 participants – senior executives, HR directors, investors, and employees from various regions. In addition to expectations for layoffs, 98% of organizations state that they are planning a larger-scale restructuring in the same period, related to rethinking roles, processes, and necessary skills.
Almost unanimous expectation for restructuring and layoffs
According to "Mercer", the prevailing logic of top management is that the redesign of work processes with an eye toward automation will bring the greatest return on investment in human capital in 2026. 63% of top managers indicate that they are prioritizing "rethinking work with regard to AI and automation" as a key source of value.
At the same time, only 32% of them believe their current teams are truly prepared to optimally combine the capabilities of human and machine. This gap between ambition and capacity suggests that in addition to layoffs, a serious wave of reskilling is ahead, but also a likely "gap" for those who fail to adapt in time.
The President and CEO of the group that includes "Mercer", "Pat Tomlinson", warns that many companies approach the transformation too superficially: "Organizations that cling to outdated work models risk falling behind – many are simply replacing old approaches with technology instead of truly transforming the very nature of labor."
The financial and technology sectors – the first to be hit by automation
Additional light on the effect of generative AI is shed by research from "Harvard Business School", developed in collaboration with Accounting and Management Professor "Suraj Srinivasan". Over 19,000 job postings published after the launch of "ChatGPT" in 2022 were analyzed. The result: job postings for positions based on routine, highly structured tasks decreased by about 13%, while demand for analytical, technical, and creative roles – where AI complements the human rather than replaces them – has grown by about 20%.
The most tangible contraction in job postings was registered in the financial and technology sectors – two areas where processes are highly digitized and subject to automation through algorithms and models. Positions such as data processing, basic financial analysis, template-based customer service, and testing activities in IT are among the first where automation provides a quick effect.
"Generative AI is not just destroying jobs – it is creating new demand for roles where the human works in tandem with the machine. This shows that the collaboration between human and AI is becoming a key factor for the transformation of the labor market," comments "Srinivasan".
Growing anxiety among employees and a blow to well-being
The consequences for workers are already being felt. According to "Mercer" data, the share of employees who say they feel good at work fell to 44% in 2026, compared to 66% in 2024. The main reasons are fear of job loss due to AI, uncertainty about future roles, and a sense that employers are not communicating their automation plans clearly enough.
In the technology sector, in just the first few months of 2026, layoffs exceeded 100,000 people, with AI and automation cited among the key factors in most official announcements. Entry-level positions carry the greatest risk – where tasks are the simplest and most repetitive, and algorithms can easily take them over.
Discrepancy between expectations and reality: central bank data
However, not all studies confirm an immediate "wave" of layoffs. In a separate attempt to measure the effect of AI on employment, a survey of financial executives conducted by one of the regional branches of the US Federal Reserve reached more measured conclusions. According to it, overall, "there is almost no evidence that companies have already faced or expect a significant reduction in employment in the short term due to AI".
Nevertheless, large companies are still forecasting about a 0.8% reduction in staff in 2026, directly related to the implementation of AI. Although the percentage seems modest, for a corporation with tens of thousands of employees, this means actual thousands of jobs. The discrepancy between the more dramatic expectations of top managers and the smoother current effects suggests that a significant portion of the planned restructuring has not yet been realized.
What this means for the future of work
The observed trends outline a complex picture: AI is simultaneously cutting and creating jobs, "hitting" hardest at routine, low-paid positions and opening space for higher-skilled labor. The question is whether companies and governments will manage to provide sufficient training and reskilling so that a significant portion of displaced employees can transfer to the new roles.
Experts warn that if automation is used primarily for rapid cost-cutting without parallel investment in people, the risks are obvious: declining motivation, increasing social inequality, and political tension surrounding the topic of "robots taking jobs".
In this sense, the key takeaway from the studies is not just that "99% of managers expect layoffs", but that almost all large organizations are in the process of radically rethinking what work is, what skills will be valuable, and how humans and machines will share tasks. The answer to these questions will determine not only corporate budgets but also the face of the labor market over the next decade.