Turkey’s 2026 Elections: Will Erdoğan Stay in Power or Is a New Era Coming?

In June 2026, Turkey will hold presidential and parliamentary elections that are widely seen as decisive for the country’s future. After more than two decades of rule under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the stakes are high: will he consolidate power for another term, or is the nation on the brink of political transformation with far-reaching regional consequences?

Erdoğan: A Dominant Player Facing Headwinds

Following his 2023 victory, Erdoğan has maintained political dominance despite growing economic troubles and increasing discontent among urban voters. His Justice and Development Party (AKP), in coalition with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), still controls parliament.

However, high inflation—over 40% in 2025—currency depreciation, and intermittent international isolation have eroded Erdoğan’s support among youth and the middle class. A Konda Research poll from June 2025 shows his approval rating slipping to 42%, with opposition parties gaining momentum.

The Opposition: United or Fragmented?

Opposition forces, led by the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and new movements like the Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA), are seeking ways to unify. Their leaders argue that only a joint candidate can unseat Erdoğan, but debates continue over whether to nominate a charismatic figure or pursue collective governance.

The role of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) remains crucial. Historically excluded from broad alliances due to nationalist resistance, HDP’s involvement could determine the opposition’s success.

Regional Implications

Turkey’s strategic location gives these elections global significance. Another Erdoğan term likely means continued autonomous foreign policy—balancing relations between the West and Russia, active involvement in Syria and Libya, and a hardline stance on Cyprus and Greece.

Conversely, an opposition victory might lead to rapprochement with the EU and the U.S., and possibly the revival of talks on EU membership. Analysts warn, however, that such a shift would face resistance from Turkey’s military establishment and conservative segments of society.

The Economy as the Battlefield

Turkey’s ongoing economic crisis dominates the campaign. The lira has lost over 60% of its value against the dollar in the past three years, while inflation continues to squeeze household incomes.

Erdoğan promises massive infrastructure projects and energy independence through expanded gas imports from Russia and Azerbaijan. The opposition proposes tighter economic reforms, IMF negotiations, and measures to restore investor confidence.

Conclusion: A Defining Moment for Turkey and the Region

The 2026 elections will mark a critical juncture for Turkey. Whether the country continues its path of centralized power and foreign policy autonomy or pivots to democratic reforms and Western alignment remains to be seen. One thing is clear: the outcome will echo far beyond Turkey’s borders.

Disclaimer:
This article is an analytical review by the BurgasMedia editorial board and reflects the opinion of an expert group based on current political, economic, and social developments.
The conclusions presented are not predictions or factual statements, but a hypothetical interpretation of possible scenarios.
The publication is not responsible for any discrepancies with future developments and encourages readers to form independent judgments based on verified sources.