Bulgaria in a Crisis Zone: What Remains of Transportation Security?

What happens when global transport stops? It's not just a single incident. This is a systemic shock—and Bulgaria is at the heart of it. Every day brings new rapid changes in global supply chains, and here, in the region, our gaze remains uncertain. Is there an exit? The answer is not simple.

The war in the Middle East—is it just a local conflict? No. It's something more: blockades of sea corridors that are connected to everything. The Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz—two key pathways for transportation between Asia and Europe. And they're closed. Not by order, but rather through the presence of forces that don't want them seen.

Prof. Hristina Nikolova from UNSS keeps warning: “This is not a regular disruption of supplies. This is a systemic shock to global trade.” As we see containers standing motionless in the Persian Gulf, and transportation prices jump—entire mechanism collapses. And when everything starts moving again, do we have what we need?

Now, in Bulgaria, what are we doing? We're among the inconvenient ones. Iran wants to say: “If you're not a party to the conflict—you can pass.” But in practice, who will risk? Who will pay for transportation when premiums for ‘war risk’ are introduced? And how does the system work if we cannot understand whether ships will be attacked or simply pass through?

We have alternative routes. One—through the southern part of Africa. But it's long, longer by 10–15 days. Do you remember what the professor said? “More capital is needed.” And this isn't just about cost—it means more fuel, fewer containers, and greater likelihood to have something that won't arrive on time.

The other option? The Trans-Caspian corridor. Is land transit—more secure? Perhaps, but it also has problems. In the last weeks, kilometers-long queues began forming. What does this mean? It means that even if we have a route, we cannot use it because trucks will accumulate on the road, preventing us from continuing. And this is just the beginning.

If we look at Varna and Burgas—what do we see? Very important ports that can be used as gateways to Europe. But there's another thing: Bulgaria’s geographical advantage increases. There's an idea—to connect with Iraq, Turkey, and the European land network. This isn't just a hypothesis. The professor said: “Bulgaria has always had a strategic position.”

But when everything changes, we often don’t become stronger. We become riskier. Can we develop intermodal terminals in the country? Can we be a serious player—not just for infrastructure but also for services? And who will build them if the state isn’t ready to begin?

Digitalization in transport doesn't wait. Electronic registration platforms must be introduced next year. But if carriers lack security, what will they do? Will we use them or tell them: “Look, there’s infrastructure—but you don’t know whether it’ll work?”

“Continuing disruptions and persistent oil price increases could lead to a deep recession,” said the guest. All of this isn't just about transport. It'll affect food prices, services, jobs. And if the crisis continues—what will remain? Is “staff training” enough? Will that help when we now have sources that already don’t work?

Ships pass or not. Transport services are more expensive. Are these just prices? Or a systemic problem? All of this is happening at a time when everyone looks north—and doesn't know what the next thing will be.