The United States is preparing a large-scale economic operation against Russian trade, which could cause significant geopolitical tremors. President Donald Trump announced the introduction of extraordinary secondary tariffs that will affect all countries continuing their trade relations with the Russian Federation.
The key mechanism of the new trade strategy provides for a 100-percent tax on imported goods from countries that maintain economic ties with Moscow. The goal is clear - forced cessation of military actions in Ukraine through financial isolation of the Russian regime.
The three main trade partners of Russia will be most affected - China, India, and Turkey. Particular attention is paid to the oil and gas sector, which represents the backbone of the Russian economy.
Experts from Capital Economics predict that such a measure could cause significant fluctuations in global energy prices. A potential reduction in Russian oil exports could trigger a new inflationary pressure on the world economy.
The Russian government has already developed complex mechanisms for circumventing sanctions, including the so-called "shadow fleet" - a network of tankers with unclear ownership that can cover the origin of exported energy resources.
India has already sharply criticized the American initiative, describing it as "unfair and unjustified". The country is the second-largest buyer of Russian oil after the full-scale invasion in 2022.
The potential consequences for the American market are extremely serious. For example, iPhone production in India could become dramatically more expensive, which would directly affect end consumers.
The Chinese market represents an additional challenge. Secondary tariffs against Beijing could disrupt the delicate balance in trade negotiations between the world's two largest economies.
The Russian economy has so far demonstrated surprising resilience, showing growth of 4.3% last year. However, the International Monetary Fund forecasts a contraction to just 0.9% this year.
About one-third of Russian state expenditures are directly financed by oil and gas revenues. Military expenditures have reached 6.3% of gross domestic product - the highest level since the Cold War.
President Trump unequivocally stated that the goal of these drastic economic measures is to force Russia to stop military actions in Ukraine. The deadline for achieving a ceasefire is definitively set - August 8.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has already expressed gratitude for the support, as the war continues to consume about 26% of the Ukrainian state budget.
International analysts are anxiously awaiting the development of events, with forecasts ranging from complete economic isolation of Russia to potential last-minute negotiations.