An expert analysis reveals the potential risks of the planned trade restrictions that the US administration intends to impose on European countries. Economic specialists Mikhail Krastev and Rumen Galabinov present an in-depth assessment of possible scenarios.
According to Mikhail Krastev, executive director of the Business Initiative Union, there is a high probability of reaching a compromise agreement. "The Trump administration demonstrates a desire to negotiate, rather than escalate conflicts," the expert emphasizes.
Krastev highlights Bulgaria's vulnerability in this trade conflict. Our country will suffer indirect damages due to its economic ties with large European countries, especially Germany. According to him, if Bulgaria were an independent trading entity, the conditions would be more favorable.
Economist Rumen Galabinov presents a more pessimistic forecast. He expects tariffs between 15 and 20% on European goods, which will inevitably lead to an increase in final consumer prices. "The inflationary wave will spread gradually, with an expected increase between 10 and 12% over the next three years," Galabinov states firmly.
An additional problem is the existing supply chain in Bulgaria. Galabinov points out that from manufacturer to end customer, products become 40-50% more expensive due to numerous intermediaries. The high VAT on food further aggravates the situation.
Analysts emphasize that the trade war between the US and the EU carries serious risks for economic stability. Despite the moderate reactions of European leaders, there is a real danger of long-term negative consequences for trade and business.
The key conclusion is that Bulgaria will be indirectly affected by these geopolitical processes. Our country will need to adapt its economic policy to minimize potential damages from possible trade restrictions.
Experts recommend carefully monitoring the development of the negotiation process between the US and the EU, as well as readiness for quick and flexible economic solutions.