The financial system of the Russian Federation is entering a critical phase of economic instability, with the National Welfare Fund potentially being depleted before the end of 2026. Official data from the Ministry of Finance reveals an alarming trend of a drastic decline in energy sector revenues.
Analysis of monthly financial indicators shows that oil and gas revenues have experienced a significant drop of 27.1% compared to the previous year, reaching only 787 billion rubles. After precise calculations and excluding additional tax revenues, the actual revenues amount to 485 billion rubles – a value lower even than June levels.
To compensate for the growing financial pressure, the agency plans large-scale liquidity operations. In August, a sale of currency reserves from the National Welfare Fund worth 6.2 billion rubles is planned, with the daily volume of operations reaching around 9.24 billion rubles.
Expert forecasts are extremely pessimistic. At the current withdrawal rates, liquid reserves of 4.1 trillion rubles could be completely exhausted in about 19 months. An additional alarming indicator is the low price of Russian Urals crude oil, which in July was only $60.37 per barrel – significantly below the levels required for budget balance.
Independent economic analysts warn of a record budget deficit of 8 trillion rubles in 2025, which doubles the initially planned 3.8 trillion. The main financing strategy involves issuing government bonds that will be purchased by state banking institutions – an approach that carries serious risks of inflationary processes and potential interest rate increases.