From August 1, the next increase in the excise tax on tobacco products comes into force in Bulgaria. The change is part of the already adopted multi-year excise calendar and aims to gradually bring national rates closer to European Union requirements without causing a shock price hike for consumers.
According to the established parameters, the excise duty on traditional cigarettes will increase so that an average pack becomes about 13 eurocents more expensive. This is the first of several consecutive steps – further increases are planned for March 2027 and January 2028, when an additional price increase of about 12 eurocents per pack is expected in each of these years. In this way, the total accumulation for the period will be distributed in three separate waves, rather than concentrated all at once.
Already in the 2026 draft budget, it was envisaged that the excise duty on cigarettes would grow from approximately 107–113 euros per 1,000 pieces, which, after adding 20% VAT, leads to an actual price increase for the end customer of about 0.25–0.30 BGN per pack. The specific effect on the price will also depend on the pricing policy of manufacturers and retailers – whether they will maintain their margin or try to absorb part of the increase.
In parallel, the excise duty on heated tobacco products is also increasing. For them, the rate is growing by about 10 euros per kilogram, which is expected to lead to a price increase in the order of 0.15 BGN per pack of 20 sticks. The increase will apply to both products with nicotine and so-called "nicotine-free" sticks, which also fall within the scope of excise taxation.
The excise burden is also rising for liquids for electronic cigarettes. The tax per milliliter is increasing from about 0.23 to 0.25 euros, which means that a standard device with a 2 ml tank will become about 0.10 BGN more expensive, and a 20 ml bottle – by approximately 1 BGN. By doing this, the state aims to standardize the fiscal treatment of various nicotine products and limit price incentives for switching between them solely due to a lower excise duty.
Against the backdrop of these national changes, a broader European debate is also underway. The European Commission has already proposed a sharp increase in minimum excise rates for tobacco products across the entire EU, which in the long term could lead to significantly higher requirements – for example, a minimum of 180–215 euros per 1,000 cigarettes. According to various calculations, if such a scenario were adopted without a smooth transition, the cheapest cigarettes in our country could reach prices in the order of 11–16 BGN per pack. This is precisely why the Bulgarian excise calendar is built as a gradual ladder – to prepare the market and consumers for a possible future harmonization.
From the perspective of the budget, every increase in the excise duty on tobacco products brings additional revenue to the state treasury. According to economic estimates, for the period 2025–2029, the accumulated effect of the planned steps could be over 1 billion BGN in additional receipts. A portion of these funds is typically argued as a resource for healthcare, prevention, and the treatment of diseases associated with smoking.
From a health perspective, excise policy is seen as a tool to reduce smoking, especially among young people. International experience shows that with a significant rise in cigarette prices, the number of active smokers gradually decreases – according to some analyses, with every 10% increase in price, consumption drops by 3–5% on average, especially in lower-income groups. In this sense, the increase from August 1 is part of a broader strategy to curb harmful habits.
Business in the tobacco sector traditionally supports the idea of a predictable "calendar" for excise duties, but insists that the increases be uniform and not lead to a sharp spike in illegal trade. The risks of an overly rapid and high increase are associated with an intensification of smuggling, which not only undermines health goals but also deprives the budget of the expected revenue.
For consumers, from August 1, the most visible effect will be the higher price of a pack of cigarettes – on average by about 0.25–0.30 BGN, as well as smaller but tangible upward corrections for heated products and electronic cigarettes. In a broader sense, however, the new step in excise policy is a signal that smoking in Bulgaria will gradually become an increasingly expensive activity – both for the pocket and for health.