Will the new US tariffs affect the Bulgarian economy?
The new intensification of customs measures by the US, targeting nearly 60 countries, is sparking serious debates among economists. According to the latest analysis by Coface, although the direct impact on Bulgaria is minimal, the indirect risks to our export-oriented sector are significant.
"Although the new measures do not drastically change the overall customs burden, they reinforce the atmosphere of uncertainty in global trade," commented Plamen Dimitrov, Manager of Coface Bulgaria.
Key takeaways from the analysis:
- Limited direct effect: The new tariffs between 10% and 12.5% will not lead to a sharp spike in costs for Bulgarian companies exporting directly to the US.
- Risk to supply chains: Bulgarian enterprises integrated into the European manufacturing and mechanical engineering industries could suffer from a decline in demand from Western Europe.
- Escalation of trade tensions: "Section 301" investigations regarding structural overcapacity in economies such as the EU, China, and Japan are creating an environment of unpredictability.
What to expect?
The administration in Washington is showing determination to use its trade strategy as a tool for pressure. Sectors such as the aerospace industry, robotics, and industrial machinery manufacturing remain under scrutiny. A cautionary example of the impact of these policies is the situation with Canada, where 50% tariffs on billions of dollars worth of imports have already been announced.