Context and Key Facts
- Rising severe climate events triggering migration from affected regions in Africa and Asia.
- Lack of internationally recognized status for climate refugees, complicating their reception and integration in the EU.
- Tightening border controls on the EU's southern frontiers and increased investments in migration management.
- Growing public tension and polarization on migration issues in some member states.
Driving Forces and Key Actors
- European Union institutions such as the European Commission, European Parliament, and Frontex agency.
- Member states with southern borders, including Spain, Italy, Greece, and Bulgaria.
- Countries of origin and transit in Africa and Asia.
- International organizations dealing with migration and climate issues.
- Civil society and media influencing public opinion and political decisions.
Possible Scenarios by 2030
Realistic Scenario
The EU implements adaptive migration policies with stricter border measures and increased support for countries of origin. Social tension rises but remains manageable.
Optimistic Scenario
Negotiation of an international status for climate refugees and building a coordinated, solidarity-based policy for their reception and integration. Enhanced cooperation with African and Asian countries involving long-term assistance.
Pessimistic Scenario
Growing migration pressure leads to political fragmentation, border closures, and worsening humanitarian conditions.
Conclusion
Climate refugees will be an important factor shaping EU migration and foreign policy. The success of the Union's responses will depend on balancing security, humanitarian values, and international cooperation.
Disclaimer: This article is an analytical overview by BurgasMedia editorial team reflecting the expert group's position based on current events. The conclusions are hypothetical and not forecasts. The editorial team is not responsible for future discrepancies and encourages readers to form their own opinions based on verified sources.