The escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the increased internal political pressure in Iran inevitably raise the question of where Iranian refugees would seek asylum in the event of a mass exodus. An analysis of the data for recent years shows a clear picture: the main destinations for Iranian migrants and refugees are large, high-income countries such as Germany, Canada, the US, the United Kingdom and Turkey, while Bulgaria remains rather a peripheral transit country through which a small share of the flow passes.
Where do Iranian refugees actually go?
Various international studies indicate that about a quarter of all Iranian migrants worldwide live in the US, nearly one-sixth in Germany, and significant communities exist in Canada and Turkey. The United Kingdom also accepts a significant share, and Sweden and Australia maintain smaller but stable diasporas. Within Europe, Germany stands out as the largest recipient of Iranian refugees, and in recent years the United Kingdom has become a leading destination for Iranian asylum seekers.
When it comes to people who reach Europe through dangerous sea and land routes, the vast majority of Iranian citizens reach Italy and Greece via the central and eastern Mediterranean route. Only a small part are registered in peripheral countries such as Cyprus and Bulgaria. This clearly shows that the main direction of Iranian migration in Europe passes through the large Western countries, and not through countries on the external border such as Bulgaria.
Iranians in Bulgarian asylum statistics: a small but visible group
Official data from the State Agency for Refugees and European monitoring structures show that in 2024, just over 12,000 applications for international protection were registered in Bulgaria - significantly less compared to the previous year. The main nationalities are Syrians and Afghans, while Iranian citizens are a small part of the total flow - dozens, not hundreds or thousands of cases per year.
Nevertheless, the share of positive decisions in Iranian cases is relatively high: a significant part of the applications lead to refugee or humanitarian status, which shows that the Bulgarian system recognizes the risk faced by certain profiles of Iranian asylum seekers - opposition activists, journalists, representatives of minorities. However, the absolute number remains small, and many people continue to Western Europe after the initial registration.
Bulgaria in migration routes: transit, not a final destination
Geographically, Bulgaria is an external border of the EU and naturally falls into the routes that start from Turkey to Central and Western Europe. In practice, however, the country functions mainly as a transit territory - the majority of migrants, including Iranians, see Bulgaria as a step on the way to Germany, the United Kingdom or the Scandinavian countries.
Pan-European data show that Germany, Spain, France and Italy take the larger part of the first asylum applications in the EU. Bulgaria remains among the countries with a relatively small share of all initial applications, with a more substantial burden coming from temporary protection for Ukrainian refugees, rather than refugees from the Middle East. This further underlines the country's peripheral role in the picture of Iranian migration.
Is Bulgaria ready for a possible mass influx of Iranian refugees?
At an institutional level, Bulgaria has a built-in asylum system – the State Agency for Refugees, registration and reception centres, legislation harmonised with European directives. The updated reports of human rights organisations for 2024 record a medium-high degree of recognition of international protection and a definite improvement in case management compared to the first years after the migration crisis of 2015–2016.
At the same time, however, a number of reports point to serious problems on the border with Turkey: frequent practices of "pushing back" people without access to an asylum procedure, cases of violence and a lack of real opportunity to apply immediately upon crossing the border. According to estimates, only a small percentage of those detained manage to reach the protection system directly; the rest go through detention centres and often return. In the event of a mass influx, this would mean a serious risk of violating people's right to flee.
Capacity and pressure: what the experience with Ukrainian refugees shows
The experience with the Ukrainian crisis provides an important benchmark for how Bulgaria reacts to large migration flows. Since the beginning of the war, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians have passed through the country, and tens of thousands remain under temporary protection. Within a short time, programmes for accommodation in hotels and private homes were activated, a system for registration and coordination with the European Commission and UNHCR was built.
This experience shows that with a clear political decision and support from the EU, Bulgaria can accommodate a significant number of people. At the same time, serious deficits were also visible: unstable funding, a lack of social services, bureaucratic obstacles in accessing healthcare, education and the labour market. If there is a mass influx of Iranian refugees, whose language, culture and religion are more distant from the Bulgarian ones, these systemic weaknesses would manifest even more acutely.
Socio-economic integration: the big question if they "stay"
The key question in the event of a larger influx from Iran is not only whether the state can register and accommodate people, but whether it can offer them a perspective. Studies on the socio-economic inclusion of refugees in Bulgaria show that some of them manage to enter the labour market, but often at low pay and uncertain conditions, mainly in low-skilled sectors.
Iranian refugees are often highly educated – engineers, doctors, IT specialists, journalists, students. Their potential to contribute to the economy is significant, but this requires targeted policies: language courses, recognition of diplomas, active measures against discrimination and a clear vision for the long-term role of migration. For now, such policies in Bulgaria are rather pilot and fragmented, rather than systematic.
Perspective: will Bulgaria become a target for Iranian refugees?
As of April 2026, there is no data to indicate that Bulgaria is becoming a preferred destination for Iranian refugees. The statistics record units and dozens of cases per year, and most people perceive the country as a transit stop on the way to Western Europe. Global trends remain in favour of countries with established diasporas, a higher standard of living and powerful integration systems.
However, in the event of a sharp deterioration in the situation in Iran and possible forced migration, Bulgaria will not be able to stay aside - as an external border of the EU and part of the common asylum system, it will have to participate in the sharing of responsibility, either through direct reception or through relocation mechanisms. How ready the country will be will depend on whether the accumulated problems will be solved by then - from access to the procedure and the capacity of the centres to the real integration of the people who have already chosen Bulgaria not just as a route, but as a home.