Economic and social development in Bulgaria continues to develop at an uneven pace, reveals the new edition of the study by the Institute for Market Economics (IME). According to the data cited in the study "Regional Profiles: Development Indicators – 2025", the country remains divided into two main streams – one that demonstrates high growth, concentrated in certain urban centers, and another that lags behind in its development.
The annual edition of the study, the summary of which was distributed by IME, notes the trend of concentration of economic activity, investments, and human resources in a limited number of strong urban centers. These regions are characterized by higher added value, well-functioning labor markets, and quality infrastructure. It is this factor that lays a solid foundation for growth in the leading areas.
At the same time, the study emphasizes that a significant group of regions are covered by systemic limitations. This includes lower incomes, weaker company dynamics, high unemployment, and deficits in the skills of the workforce.
To assess the overall picture, the study summarizes the current statistics for all regions of the country. It traces their development in a wide range of areas, including economy, labor market, investments, infrastructure, local finance, demography, education, healthcare, security, environment, culture, and tourism. It is important to note that the indicators mainly cover 2024, and in some sections, data for 2025 are also included, which allows for reliable comparability between regions and tracking of trends over time, according to IME.
The authors of the study note a clear division in the complex assessments of economic development. Several regions are in the "very good" category, thanks to the high share of industry and services and strong investment activity. Gabrovo, whose concentrated industrial base maintains a high standard of living, also stands out. Ruse and Sofia (region) achieve "good" economic development, remaining a step away from the leaders. Unfortunately, nine regions are classified as "unsatisfactory", which, according to IME, is a signal of a limited economic base and lower quality of jobs.
The results of the study highlight investment geography as a key factor for divergence. The current edition reports extremely uneven investment activity. Half of the regions are assessed as "weak" in the direction of "Investments and companies", and another seven – as "unsatisfactory".
In addition, there is a significant difference in the connections with foreign markets. The share of export revenues reaches about half of the turnover in the most export-oriented regions (Sofia region, Ruse), while in the weaker regions it remains about one-eighth. According to IME, this gap reinforces the differences in productivity and incomes.
The labor market also confirms the asymmetry, according to the authors of the study. Vidin and Montana remain at the bottom, with a vulnerable employment structure and a less favorable educational profile of the workforce. In several regions, the share of people with primary and lower education reaches one-third, which limits the ability to fill new, more qualified jobs. The capital and Varna stand out as opposite poles, with a high share of the population with higher education, higher employment, and accordingly – higher incomes.
Regarding infrastructure, the study notes a lack of significant change during the year but emphasizes the differences in quality and access. In 2025, only Montana receives a "weak" assessment, while the capital and Varna are rated as "very good". The density of the road network remains almost unchanged. The railway network is most developed in the capital, while Smolyan remains without railway lines. This reinforces the differences in access to services and markets, especially visible from the indicators of Northern Bulgaria.
In the sphere of local finances, the data show limited fiscal autonomy of a large part of the municipalities. Own revenues cover only one-fourth of the total expenses. The absorption of funds under operational programs remains an important source for investments in public infrastructure and services, which contributes to reducing territorial differences. However, without targeted efforts to attract private investments, the trajectory of the lagging regions does not improve.
Social development is polarizing even more clearly, according to IME. Six regions receive a "very good" result, with the capital, Varna, Burgas, and Plovdiv being among the leaders in almost all components – from demography and healthcare to education and tourism. The high overall result can also be achieved through strong performance in several key areas – an example is Smolyan (education and environment) and Blagoevgrad (education and demography). At the bottom are regions with an unfavorable demographic trajectory and weaker results in education and healthcare.
Demography remains a decisive factor, the study emphasizes. After a temporary relief in 2023, in 2024 the natural increase worsened in 24 of all regions. The differences between the regions are large: the capital is close to a balance of birth and death rates, while in Vidin the difference is many times higher. The positive migration, which started in 2020, continues, but is concentrated in the more developed areas – Kardzhali, Varna, Burgas, and Sofia. In most other regions, the net inflow weakens, which suggests a permanent channeling of people towards the leading centers.
The differences in human capital and access to services are clearly visible in education and healthcare, show the data from the study. The results of the national external assessments and the state maturity exams vary significantly between the regions. Access to primary medical care and the expected life expectancy also show significant differences. The authors of the study comment that policies for quality education and health services in the weaker regions are key to limiting social polarization.