Analysts at the Sofia Commodity Exchange (SCE) report that the past week was marked by significant geopolitical instability, which had a direct impact on the prices of major commodities. The wheat market saw the most drastic turn: prices dropped sharply after signals emerged from Russia regarding a potential peace agreement in the Black Sea, and Ukraine reported a "new dynamic" in the dialogue. Although this shift eroded some of the risk premium built up during August, experts warn that the damaged export infrastructure and the lack of a signed agreement keep the situation fragile and susceptible to new escalations.
Meanwhile, the oil sector remains under pressure while the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Iran and Oman are in talks regarding its temporary reopening, but despite diplomatic signals, prices remain high: Brent crude neared 99 dollars per barrel, and WTI is tracking it closely. Against this backdrop, natural gas in Europe hit a five-month high, driven by dwindling stockpiles. Corn and soybeans showed weaker performance due to crop assessments, while in the metals market, demand from China has stabilized, though a specific tightness is being observed in zinc.
Price levels on international exchanges show the following trends:
- Bread wheat: 284 – 288 dollars per ton (Chicago) and 282 – 294 dollars per ton (Euronext).
- Corn: 211 – 214 dollars per ton (CME) and 313 – 321 dollars per ton (Euronext).
- Sugar (ICE): raw 392 – 412 dollars per ton and refined 514 – 539 dollars per ton.
The sugar market is also influenced by the strengthening of the Brazilian real, which increases production costs, while global levels remain high due to the diversion of sugarcane toward ethanol production. However, the long-term scenario for surpluses from Thailand and potentially India places a cap on further gains. Within the SCE "Grain" circle, following transactions at the end of August for feed wheat at 180 euros per ton, feed barley at 170 euros per ton, and oats at 150 euros per ton, current offers include demand for feed wheat at 192 euros per ton and sales of bread wheat at 230 euros per ton.
The exchange's "Foodstuffs" circle maintains stability. Supplies include:
- Canned green peas: 1.19 – 2.63 euros per kilogram.
- Sweet corn: 1.83 – 3.54 euros per kilogram.
- Diced peeled tomatoes: 2.53 – 2.65 euros per kilogram.
- Nuts and seeds: 1278.23 – 7362.60 euros per ton.
In the industrial goods segment, sales of firewood were realized at 141 euros per ton and wood pellets at 354 euros per ton. The fuel sector reported activity with the following prices per thousand liters: diesel B6 (1500 – 1516.67 euros), diesel with additives (1640 euros), A95H gasoline (1280 – 1308.33 euros), A100H gasoline (1480 euros), and propane-butane gas (541.67 euros). In the scrap market, transactions were concluded for brass at 2556.46 euros per ton, aluminum at 715.81 euros per ton, and ferrous metals in the range of 81.81 – 107.37 euros per ton.