Wheat trading is in a state of serious collapse after the world's largest container line took action to stop all new bookings for the port of Novorossiysk. In parallel, about 70 vessels are blocked at the Sulina Canal entrance on the Danube River, according to experts from the Sofia Commodity Exchange (SCE) in their weekly analysis. At the same time, grain exports from Ukraine via the rail network have seen a significant year-on-year decline of 77 percent due to intense airstrikes, while the price of wheat on the Chicago exchange has reached its highest level in years.
According to analysts, the more significant development lies in the permanent shift in supply sources among Asian buyers: Indonesia is turning toward Australian cargo, and Bangladesh is reorienting its interest toward Romanian supplies. This trend may persist even after the disruptions, although Russia's massive base crop and collapsed domestic prices remain a strong argument for a large export surplus once ports become operational again.
Price levels on international exchanges show the following dynamics:
- Bread wheat futures for next-month delivery on the Chicago exchange are trading at prices from 250 to 273 dollars per tonne, while on the Euronext exchange, they are in the range of 265-276 dollars per tonne.
- Corn futures for the same delivery term in Chicago are quoted between 193 and 203 dollars per tonne, while at Euronext, levels are between 304 and 311 dollars per tonne.
- In sugar, there is a market divergence: raw sugar in New York is hitting new peaks between 380 and 402 dollars per tonne, while refined sugar in London is falling to levels of 514-536 dollars per tonne.
On the Sofia Commodity Exchange, during the final days of August, deals were realized for feed wheat at 180 euros per tonne, feed barley at 170 euros per tonne, and oats at 150 euros per tonne. All sales were made according to specification, with active buy offers for feed wheat at 192 euros per tonne and sell offers for bread wheat at 230 euros per tonne remaining.
The market for basic food commodities remains stable. Canned goods offerings include:
- Green peas: from 1.19 to 2.63 euros per kilogram.
- Sweet corn: from 1.83 to 3.54 euros per kilogram.
- Diced peeled tomatoes: from 2.53 to 2.65 euros per kilogram.
- Nuts and seeds: from 1278.23 to 7362.60 euros per tonne.
In the "Industrial Goods" sub-circle of the SCE, the following sales were recorded:
- Crushed stone: 21.89 euros per cubic meter.
- Diesel fuel B6: within 1380-1516.67 euros per thousand liters.
- Automotive gasoline A95H: in the range of 1190-1291.67 euros per thousand liters.
- Propane-butane gas: from 530 to 533.33 euros per thousand liters.
- Gas oil for industrial and public utility purposes: from 1427.91 to 1607.89 euros per thousand liters.