Bulgaria's economy will grow by 2.5% to 2.8% in 2026, slower than the finance ministry expects, the Fiscal Council said in its opinion on the ministry's autumn macroeconomic forecast, published yesterday.
The council backs the forecast, but with reservations. It expects growth of 2.8% next year, 2.5% in 2027, and a slowdown to 1.5% in 2028. The ministry forecasts 3% for 2026, 2.5% for 2027, and 2.4% for both 2028 and 2029.
The council says the ministry's figure for next year sits at the top end of the range and assumes quarterly growth will pick up in the second half of the year. As of September, there's no sign of that pickup in industrial output, retail trade or jobs. The council blames the 2028 slowdown on a cooling global economy.
On prices, the ministry expects average annual inflation of 4.8% next year, falling to 4% in 2027. The council calls these figures realistic for 2026, and on the cautious side for 2027. It also finds the unemployment forecast of around 3.4% reasonable.
Nominal GDP — the size of the economy at current prices — will reach around 130.5 billion euros in 2026 and 141.3 billion euros in 2027, the forecast says. The council says the two figures don't clash, but it's still unclear why the deflator, which measures the overall rise in prices across the economy, drops sharply after 2026.
The council also flags risks to the economy: pricier energy, higher interest rates, and tighter spending under the excessive deficit procedure. It also points to EU recovery funds running low, and a possible slowdown in lending and the housing market. As of 31 August 2026, about 70% of the recovery money had been spent.
The council recommends that the ministry either justify or slightly lower its 2026 growth forecast, and lay out the alternative scenario in full, with numbers and clear assumptions on budget policy. For the 2027 budget, it recommends planning revenue cautiously and keeping enough of a buffer in case the economy performs worse than expected. It calls the 2027-2029 scenario realistic.