Bulgaria's economy will grow 3% in 2026, the finance ministry now says, up from the 2.6% it forecast in spring — but prices will rise faster too. The ministry posted its autumn forecast on its website today.
Inflation will average 4.8% in 2026, not 4.3% as predicted in spring. The ministry blames a jump in fuel prices.
Its outlook for the years after that is more cautious. Growth in 2027 stays at 2.5%. In 2028 it falls from 2.5% to 2.4%, and in 2029 from 2.6% to 2.4%.
Prices will also stay higher than the ministry expected before. Inflation will hit 4% in 2027, up from 3.8% in spring, and 2.6% in 2028, up from 2.5%. Only in 2029 is the new figure a touch lower than the old one — 2.4% instead of 2.5%.
Average pay per worker, in nominal terms, will rise 7.1% in the first half of 2026 and 8.5% over the full year. This is what an employer spends on each employee. In 2027 that growth will slow to 6.2%.
Employment will grow 0.5% in 2026 and another 0.2% in 2027. Unemployment will stay at around 3.4% — the level already reached — right through to the end of the forecast period.
The war in the Middle East remains the biggest outside factor shaping the outlook. The ministry assumes the fighting and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will drag on until mid-2026, after which things will gradually calm down. Tension eased briefly at the end of June and start of July, but the conflict flared up again and prices started climbing.
Oil and gas prices on world markets won't settle back to normal until 2027, the ministry believes. Until then, high prices and tighter monetary policy will hold back growth, especially in Europe.
The Middle East crisis is also the biggest risk to the forecast — a new flare-up could keep energy prices high for longer. Pricier raw materials and uncertainty abroad will also squeeze business investment at home, though the hit will come later than for other parts of demand.
The ministry has also drawn up a gloomier alternative scenario, in which world energy prices run higher and demand from abroad is weaker. Under this scenario, inflation in Bulgaria would come in 0.6 percentage points higher in 2026 and 0.3 points higher in both 2027 and 2028, while growth would be 0.1 points lower in both 2027 and 2028 than in the main forecast.