For Bulgarian companies, the adoption of the euro is about to mark an important change, although fundamentally the currency risk will not change significantly, according to an analysis by the financial company "iBan First".
The analysis emphasizes that the fixed exchange rate of the Bulgarian lev already ties its value to the movements of the euro.
The focus remains on partners operating with currencies other than the euro. The franc, the pound, the forint, the zloty, the leu, the yen and the yuan are among the currencies that will continue to attract the attention of companies. From January 1, 2026, however, operational changes are expected. The euro will become a functional currency, which necessitates updates to resource planning systems (ERP), invoicing processes, and internal policies for liquidity and currency risk management. "iBan First" emphasizes that for companies that prepare in advance and continue to monitor the currencies of their suppliers and customers outside the eurozone, this means greater predictability and fewer surprises during the first year.
The view towards 2026 outlines interesting trends in the currency market. The consensus among leading global banks and official institutions points to a stronger euro against the dollar in 2026. In parallel with this, inflation in the eurozone is expected to remain around 1.7 percent, which represents a decrease compared to 2025.
In this situation, Dean Todorov, Director for Bulgaria at "iBan First", notes: "2026 will be significant for Bulgarian business, as for the first time budgets will be entirely in euros". He continues: "Companies are already trading in euro crosses, but in most cases this requires double revaluation through the lev. With the adoption of the euro, this complexity is eliminated. Our goal is to be a useful partner and support for our clients, so we continue to provide timely analysis and practical tools that help them make a confident transition to the first year of the euro."
Leading banks predict a rate (euro/dollar - EUR/USD) in the range of 1.22–1.25 in 2026, which is supported by expectations of a weaker dollar. The euro is expected to remain stable against the Swiss franc, to appreciate against the Turkish lira, and to maintain relative stability against the Polish zloty and the Hungarian forint. "iBan First" forecasts a holding around the current levels against the Romanian leu and its gradual, moderate devaluation.
In the dynamics of currency markets, trade and political news, such as those about tariffs, can trigger short but sharp movements. The analysis cites the European Central Bank, which forecasts global trade growth of 1.5 percent in 2026. This forecast highlights the sensitivity of markets to news, even when the medium-term trend of the euro seems more stable.