Iliana Iotova and Kiril Valchev would win a runoff with 65.8%, against 34.2% for Andrey Gyurov and Georgi Kandev, a nationally representative poll by the Sova Harris agency shows.

The law requires a runoff, the agency says. In a runoff against Kostadin Kostadinov and Petar Volgin of Vazrazhdane, Iotova and Valchev would get 72.7% and their rivals 27.3%.

In the first round, Iotova and Valchev have 49.2% of those who plan to vote, or about half. Gyurov and Kandev are second with 24.8%, and Kostadinov and Volgin third with 9.5%. Radostin Vasilev and Krasimir Manov have 3.1%, Ivelin Mihailov and Yuliana Mateeva 2.6%, and Ivan Hristanov and Stoyanka Cherkezova 1.9%.

The agency also calculated the upper limit of support for the leading pairs. For Iotova and Valchev it is about 1.5m votes, for Gyurov and Kandev 600,000, and for Kostadinov and Volgin 400,000.

Sova Harris says Iotova and Valchev's main rivals are Gyurov and Kandev. The nationalist vote is gathering around Kostadinov and Volgin, but the agency says the pair are far from having a chance of reaching a runoff. Voters may change their minds before the campaign ends, but only within the lines already drawn. The agency says nothing so far suggests that any candidate will draw a wave of support beyond what has been declared.

Some 38.1% of those polled say they will vote, 2 percentage points fewer than the turnout in the 2021 election.

The agency also asked people how Bulgaria should act in Europe. For 47.7%, the country should be loyal to its European partners and defend its national interests. For 36.4%, it should be guided only by its own interests, and 10.5% want it to follow the decisions of European institutions.

For 49.8% of those polled, the president should act as a corrective, and for 37.7% as a balancer.

On the rise in prices, 47.5% blame domestic political reasons and 37.2% foreign ones.

Some 45.2% expect the government to ensure an honest and democratic vote. 24% do not expect it, and 30.8% cannot say.

A newspaper commissioned the poll, which was held between 13 and 17 October among 1,000 Bulgarian adults. Pollsters spoke to people face to face in their homes. The maximum margin of error is 3.1% at a 50% share and a 95% confidence level.