Despite speculation about a possible summit, international policy experts believe that such a direct meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky is unlikely in the foreseeable future. It could only take place if agreements have been reached and guaranteed in advance, not to seek escalation or confrontation. This conclusion comes after an analysis of statements made by two leading Bulgarian analysts on a national television broadcast.
Key Principles of Diplomacy
According to former Deputy Foreign Minister Lyubomir Kyuchukov, presidential meetings are, by their nature, the culmination of diplomacy, not a platform for conflict.
"Presidents don't meet to argue. For a meeting between Zelensky and Putin to happen, agreements must be specified"
These words underscore the key principle that any meeting at such a high level requires serious preparation and consensus on key issues so that it does not become a meaningless event.
Freezing the Conflict
International analyst Milen Keremedchiev, for his part, points out that at this stage the main idea is not the complete cessation of the conflict, but rather its freezing. He sees this as another sign of a reprieve given by former US President Donald Trump to Putin, which calls into question the long-term stability in the region.
"We are seeing another reprieve that Trump is giving to Putin. We're talking about freezing the conflict, not its complete cessation"
The central question preoccupying both Moscow and Kyiv is related to security guarantees. Until guarantees that satisfy both sides are secured, the military actions will not stop. Keremedchiev warns that potential negotiations could drag on for years, emphasizing the gravity and complexity of the problem.
Obstacles to Negotiations
Regarding the location of a possible meeting, Lyubomir Kyuchukov defines it as a secondary issue. However, he brings to the fore another, much more serious obstacle that overshadows the logistical details.
"There is a serious limiting factor – the ICC's arrest warrant for Putin. What happens is important, not so much where"
This legal act creates serious restrictions for Putin when he travels to countries that recognize the court's jurisdiction. Milen Keremedchiev questions the Russian president's sincere desire to meet with his Ukrainian counterpart. The Russian propaganda machine continues to maintain the thesis that Volodymyr Zelensky is not the legitimate president of Ukraine.
"If a document is signed, it may have no legal value"
At the same time, the Ukrainian side faces a no less complex dilemma. The expert believes that no Ukrainian president would dare to sign a decree ceding 20% of the country's territories to Russia, as such a move could lead to a civil war.
Zelensky's Dilemma
Kyuchukov adds that the main dispute revolves around territorial issues, focusing on the fate of one region – Donetsk. He also analyzes the difficult dilemma the Ukrainian president is in, after Donald Trump reached some agreements with Putin, but transferred the responsibility for their acceptance entirely to Zelensky.
- "If the Ukrainian president accepts what has been agreed upon for the territories, he will be accused of betraying Ukrainian interests."
- "If he rejects it, they will accuse him of continuing the war. The situation is difficult enough for Zelensky"
This situation illustrates Zelensky's extremely delicate position, caught between the pressure for a peaceful solution and the firm public will not to cede sovereignty and territorial integrity.