February 16, 2026 — How did Bulgaria greet the first month as part of the Eurozone? Data from the National Statistical Institute (NSI) for January show something we have long awaited: a slowdown in inflation. But what exactly do these figures tell us and what can we expect in the future?
Calmer Prices?
On an annual basis, the increase in prices has reached 3.5%. For comparison, in the second half of 2025, the value stubbornly exceeded 5%. Doesn't sound bad, does it? The last time such levels were reported was in April 2025 – a year before the introduction of the euro.
The monthly change, which is calculated using the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is also interesting. It has reached 0.6%. At the beginning of the month, preliminary NSI data gave a slightly higher figure - 0.7%. Then, the chairman of the institute, Atanas Atanasov, explained that the differences between the preliminary and final results are usually insignificant, around 0.1%. But still, what is the picture in detail?
Where is the inflation hiding?
As already commented, services are the main driver of inflation in January. We are seeing a price increase in most sectors. If we look more closely, two groups of goods and services show a price decrease: "Clothing and footwear" - a decrease of 4%, and "Information and communications" - a drop of 0.3%. It is clear that there are nuances, and everything is not simple.
What's next?
The final inflation data for the Eurozone, including Bulgaria, will be published by the European statistical office Eurostat on February 25. We will see whether the corrections will be significant, or the trend will be maintained.
The effect of the euro and realities
The question of the euro's influence on prices always provokes interest and debate. The Fiscal Council recently published an analysis in which it emphasized something important: the introduction of the euro as a currency is not a direct reason for higher prices. According to them, the price increase is a result of real factors. What are they?
Military conflicts are mentioned, which have a direct impact on the economy. In addition, production costs, demand, energy prices and economic policy have an influence. The advisory body explains that the change of currency is only a nominal change. Prices and incomes are recalculated at the fixed exchange rate. There is no increase in the money supply. On the contrary, Bulgaria functioned in a currency board.
The experience of other Eurozone countries shows that there is a minimal one-off effect. The feeling of an overall increase in prices is often more psychological than real. Whether this will be the case with us, only time will tell.
But let's think about it - how do these figures affect our daily lives? Are the expectations of the euro justified? And most of all - what's next? The questions are many, and the answers - probably, too.