The "World Meteorological Organization" (WMO) announced on Tuesday that the "El Niño" phenomenon is forming in the tropical Pacific Ocean. According to the latest data, the probability of "El Niño" manifesting in the period from June to August 2026 is about 80%, and the chance of the phenomenon persisting until at least November exceeds 90%. This means the world is facing a new cycle of climate anomalies against the backdrop of an already warming planet.
Global call for action from the UN
UN Secretary-General "António Guterres" issued an urgent call for action in response to the published forecast. "The science is clear: El Niño is approaching our doorstep — in the coming months, its probability is 90%," he stated in a video address.
According to him, "El Niño conditions will pour oil on the fire of an already warming world. The consequences will become even more severe, spread even further, and cross borders with destructive speed." Guterres emphasized that countries must use the remaining time to prepare for both humanitarian and economic impacts.
WMO: risk of droughts, floods, and heatwaves
WMO Secretary-General "Celeste Saulo" called on governments and humanitarian organizations to prepare for a potentially powerful event. "We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event, which will exacerbate droughts and heavy rainfall, as well as increase the risk of heatwaves — both on land and in the ocean," she warned.
Saulo recalled that the last "El Niño" in 2023–2024 was among the five strongest in recorded history and contributed to the record global temperatures registered in 2024. Back then, many regions faced devastating droughts, catastrophic floods, and extreme heatwaves.
What is happening in the Pacific Ocean
According to WMO data, by the end of April to mid-May, the water surface temperature in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean approached the threshold values for "El Niño". This is due to subsurface conditions exceeding average values by more than 6°C – the formation of a significant "heat reservoir" that is gradually warming the surface layers.
This accumulated heat reserve is a key mechanism for the emergence and intensification of "El Niño", as it changes atmospheric and oceanic circulation and leads to a global redistribution of precipitation and temperatures.
NOAA and international center forecasts
In May, the "Climate Prediction Center" at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported an 82% probability of "El Niño" forming in the period May–July 2026 and a 96% probability that the phenomenon would persist through the winter of 2026–27 in the Northern Hemisphere.
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society at "Columbia University" estimated the probability of "El Niño" occurring in the period May–July at even 98%. This unusually high consensus among various forecast centers reinforces the concern that the world is heading toward another strong episodic phase.
Record heat in perspective
Although there is still uncertainty regarding the maximum intensity of the upcoming "El Niño", most models suggest that the phenomenon will be at least moderate, and it is possible it could reach a strong phase. The additional global seasonal climate forecast bulletin from the WMO predicts temperatures above normal on land in almost all regions over the coming months.
Scientists warn that the combination of "El Niño" and background warming caused by greenhouse gases could push 2026 into first or second place among the warmest years in the history of instrumental records. This means more frequent and more intense heatwaves, increased risk of fires, pressure on energy systems, and additional challenges for health systems.
What this means for different regions
Historically, "El Niño" is associated with droughts in parts of South America, Southeast Asia, and Africa, as well as with more abundant rainfall and floods in other areas. For example, in the eastern parts of Africa, heavy rains are often observed, while in parts of Australia and Indonesia, the risk of drought increases.
In Europe, the effects are more indirect, but "El Niño" can influence atmospheric circulation, which could lead to milder winters or longer periods of drought in specific regions. Therefore, climatologists are calling on national services to prepare with adapted risk scenarios.
Call to governments: prevention instead of reaction
The WMO and the UN urge governments to use early warnings to plan preventive measures: preparation of early warning systems, strengthening of infrastructure, water resource planning, and support for agriculture. Special attention is recommended for the most vulnerable communities, where even a moderate deviation from the climate norm can lead to humanitarian crises.
It is emphasized that adaptation and risk reduction – from strengthening levees and irrigation systems to evacuation plans for floods and heatwaves – can significantly reduce human and economic losses. "El Niño" cannot be prevented, but its consequences can be managed if preparation begins in time.