The Swiss economy is facing an unprecedented challenge after the U.S. administration's decision to impose extremely high customs duties of 39% on its exports. This move is defined by experts as one of the most drastic trade blows in the European economic space.
Official data show that these tariffs are the fourth highest globally, after countries like Syria, Laos, and Myanmar. For Swiss society, this represents a true shock, which some media are already comparing to a national defeat on the scale of the Battle of Marignano in 1515.
A few weeks ago, the Swiss government was still expressing optimism about trade negotiations. President Karin Keller-Suter personally participated in a meeting between the U.S. and China in Geneva, where she received a hint of favorable conditions - the initially mentioned 10% tariffs seemed like a good opportunity.
The key issue for the U.S. administration is the trade imbalance between the two countries. The trade deficit amounts to $47.4 billion in 2024, although when including services, it decreases to $22 billion.
Switzerland has already taken compensation attempts - zero tariffs on American industrial goods and investment commitments from leading companies like Nestle and Novartis for billions of dollars in American production facilities. The country is the sixth-largest investor in the U.S., generating around 400,000 jobs.
Despite the steps taken, market perspectives look grim. Jan Ateslender from EconomieSuisse emphasized the need for stable trade relations, hinting at the serious tension between the two countries.
By August 7th, the Swiss government has a narrow window for negotiations. Business circles warn of a potential loss of thousands of jobs if high tariffs are maintained. Among possible countermeasures are withdrawing investment promises, introducing retaliatory tariffs, and even canceling the F-35 fighter jet order.
On the eve of its national holiday, Swiss President Karin Keller-Suter acknowledged the complexity of the situation, hinting that the main obstacle is President Trump's personal views on the trade deficit.
Public sentiment varies between confusion and anger. Some analysts emphasize that Switzerland is a country with exceptional economic resilience and innovation, which gives it a chance to overcome this challenging period.
The upcoming weeks will show whether the two countries will manage to reach a compromise or deepen the trade tension, which could have serious consequences for the global economy.