S&P Global Ratings has changed its outlook on Bulgaria's long-term credit rating to stable, citing weaker budget and external sector figures, the Finance Ministry said. The agency confirmed the rating itself at "BBB+/A-2", both long-term and short-term, in foreign and local currency.
S&P analysts raised their forecast for this year's budget deficit to 5.1% of GDP. They expect the government to cut it gradually to 3% in 2029. The current account deficit, the gap between what Bulgaria pays abroad and what it receives, has worsened more than expected. Exports are weaker, and strong domestic demand is pushing up imports.
The labour market remains tight, which keeps wages high. Private sector pay rose 11.7% in nominal terms, before inflation, in the first six months of 2026. Growth has been around that level every year since 2023.
Banks are lending more. Loans to households have grown by 21%, most of them mortgages, and home prices rose 15.5% in the period to June 2026. S&P analysts say the steps already taken will help the economy cool gradually.
The agency expects GDP to grow 2.8% in 2026, helped by strong consumption and more investment funded by EU money. Growth will then slow to an average real rate of 2.6% in 2027–2029.
The agency says it confirmed the rating because the finances of both the state and the private sector are stable, now and in its forecast. It could raise the rating if external imbalances shrink and the current account deficit stays lower for longer. It could cut the rating if budget consolidation makes no progress.
According to the Finance Ministry, Fitch Ratings kept Bulgaria's "BBB+" rating at the end of September but raised the outlook from stable to positive. Fitch named lower political uncertainty as the reason, and warned of growing macroeconomic imbalances, high inflation and a larger budget deficit.