Russia could carry out more dangerous operations in NATO countries in the coming months, including sabotage and strikes on depots holding weapons for Ukraine, Czech intelligence chief Michal Koudelka warned on Monday.
He does not see a direct Russian military attack on a NATO country as an immediate threat for now. "Russia has concentrated all its forces in Ukraine," Koudelka said.
Koudelka, director general of the Security Information Service (BIS), was speaking at a parliamentary security conference in the Czech Republic. He described several possible Russian moves. The first is sabotage in a NATO country against a site linked to aid for Ukraine. The second is a drone or missile strike on a depot with weapons for Ukraine. The last is "in the extreme case, even a limited military action against one of the neighbouring member states of the Alliance".
Koudelka said Moscow appears to be adopting a strategy of "escalate to de-escalate". It may take bigger risks to put pressure on Western countries that back Ukraine.
The BIS chief believes Russia's hybrid operations, such as sabotage, cyberattacks and other subversion, aim to undermine unity in NATO. They also aim to weaken the Alliance's joint response to Russia's war in Ukraine.
Fears are growing that Russia could widen its confrontation with the West beyond Ukraine without launching a full-scale attack on NATO. Earlier this month, Vladimir Putin said Moscow has no plans to attack a European country and wants to live in peace with its neighbours. That is the same state that launched a full-scale war against Ukraine in February 2022. Russia has repeatedly denied being behind sabotage and other forms of hybrid war against European countries, but BIS chief Koudelka said it is Russian hybrid operations that aim to undermine unity in NATO.
Koudelka's service has no specific information pointing to an immediate direct threat to the Czech Republic. It is closely watching Russian actions against the country and its NATO allies.