A scientific model reveals migration trends of Ukrainian refugees

11.07.2025 | Humanitarian Focus

An expert analysis by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees and Brunel University reveals complex demographic factors influencing the potential return of Ukrainian citizens who have fled the war.

Снимка от UNHCR, Wikimedia Commons, под CC BY-SA 4.0

The international organization UNHCR presented a revolutionary predictive toolkit, developed jointly with British researchers, which deeply analyzes migration attitudes among Ukrainian refugees.

The study, based on six representative surveys conducted by IPSOS over the past year, reveals complex demographic patterns. Experts have focused their attention on key social parameters - age structure, marital status, property ownership, and professional realization in host countries.

The obtained results demonstrate categorical differences in migration attitudes between different age and social groups. It has been established that older individuals and property owners show significantly higher tendency towards return, while young people and families with minor children are more reserved about such a perspective.

The organization explicitly emphasizes that the current model does not represent a direct recommendation or encouragement for mass repatriation. The main goal of the development is to serve as an analytical tool for planning future programs related to rehabilitation and social integration of refugees.