Some ships have refused to come to Bulgaria's Black Sea ports, though the country has 5m tonnes of wheat to export, Iliya Prodanov, chairman of the National Association of Grain Producers, told BNT. Grain producers want the state to urgently guarantee safe shipping in territorial waters.
This report follows our earlier story on carriers refusing to haul grain across the Black Sea, and on the call by Progressive Bulgaria MP Todor Dzhikov for the European Union to find an urgent solution.
Speaking on the show "The Day Begins", Prodanov said the change came the day before. A few days earlier, exports had no problems. Now some ships have refused to come, while others are delaying their arrival and waiting in the southern part of the Black Sea. Insurance costs have risen many times over.
"If things do not return to normal and ships do not start arriving as usual, there is a risk that Bulgaria will not be able to export the wheat it has," Prodanov said.
Leftover grain from last year's harvest has already been sold. It went abroad in July and after the harvest. Exports from the new crop probably began in August.
About 1.2–1.3m tonnes of wheat go to the home market. Everything above that must be exported or it remains as surplus, and warehouses cannot hold the output of two harvests.
If ports are left without ships, Bulgaria will have huge carry-over stocks when the new harvest comes, meaning unsold grain from the previous year. Prodanov said this would hit prices and storage. For now, he said, he does not even want to imagine it.
The other route for grain is by rail, but it cannot handle exports on this scale. The line to Greece is in very poor condition, and it has only one or two border crossings.
If safety is not guaranteed, Bulgaria will lose markets. "Because otherwise our hands are simply tied. Bulgaria has no other option," Prodanov added.
He said wheat exports across the Black Sea are becoming dangerous, and the balance of the world market depends on grain from the region. The world produces about 800m tonnes of wheat. About 200m tonnes are traded internationally, and the rest is consumed in the countries that produce it.
Russia accounts for 50m tonnes of that trade, Ukraine 20m, Romania about 10m and Kazakhstan 10m. In some years the Black Sea region's share reaches almost 50%. If this wheat does not reach buyers, the problem becomes international and there will be a shortage, Prodanov warned.
Since the war in Ukraine began, shipping grain from the Black Sea basin has cost 5–6 times more.
Prodanov agreed with an earlier guest on the show. World wheat prices may rise while prices in the Black Sea basin fall, because the grain stays here and the home market cannot absorb it.
Besides an immediate fix for safe shipping, he proposes a long-term one: exports through Greece in future crises. Since 2021, the European Commission has spoken of the need for alternative routes from Romania and Bulgaria to Greek ports.