After the icy January and the series of warnings for cold waves, many people in Europe and Bulgaria are already looking at the forecasts with one question: when does the warming come. The answer is not unambiguous, but meteorologists outline a clear trend - winter will try to hold on until at least mid-February, and we can expect more tangible and more sustainable warming only towards the end of the month and especially in March.
At the beginning of 2026, a large part of Europe was under the influence of cold air masses and Arctic incursions, which brought snowfall, blizzards and negative temperatures. Bulgaria also felt the weight of winter - with "fierce January" days of cold, ice and serious minimum values in the Danube plain and in the valleys.
Europe: between cold waves and the first milder air
Synoptic analyzes for Europe show that in the first half of February the weather will remain dynamic - with alternation of warmer periods and new cold incursions. Western and Central Europe will experience short warmings due to the stronger influence of Atlantic cyclones, while Eastern and Southeastern Europe, including the Balkans, will continue to feel the influence of colder air from the north and northeast.
Meteorologists comment that although temperatures rise significantly on some days, this will still not mean real spring. They emphasize that the weather remains highly dynamic - cyclones and anticyclones change quickly and create sharp temperature contrasts. A more sustained softening of the weather in a large part of the continent is expected towards the last ten days of February, when the cold incursions gradually weaken and milder air from the south and southwest begins to dominate.
Bulgaria: cold start to February, milder towards the end
For Bulgaria, the long-term forecasts outline February as a month of contrasts. At the beginning, the weather will remain more wintery - with negative minimum temperatures in many areas, snowfall and conditions for icing, especially during the passage of fronts and the change of precipitation from snow to rain.
In the first weeks of the month, several more pronounced cyclones are expected, bringing cloudiness, precipitation and strong winds. A new snow cover will accumulate in the mountains, and in the high fields there will be days with a typical winter feeling, despite the short warmings between the individual systems. Towards the middle of February, the weather will gradually become more variable - with alternation of milder days and short cold incursions.
In the third ten days of February, the forecasts indicate a gradual weakening of winter. The warmings will be more frequent, and the daytime temperatures in the lowlands and in Southern Bulgaria will increasingly reach and exceed 10 degrees. Nevertheless, morning frosts and colder nights will remain possible, especially in Western and Northern Bulgaria.
When will we really feel spring?
Although the first warmer days can be felt towards the end of February, meteorologists are cautious - short cold waves, snowfall in the high fields and in the mountains and strong winds will remain in the game until at least mid-March. This means that in the same area we can have almost spring temperatures at the beginning of the week and again a typical winter feeling at the end of it.
Climatologists remind that global warming does not mean a lack of winter, but rather more frequent and more abrupt climatic fluctuations - warmer periods, interrupted by strong cold episodes, but also more extreme events during the rest of the year. This makes the long-term forecast useful for general orientation, but does not remove the need to follow the short-term forecasts for specific days.
What does this mean for everyday life?
The practical answer for people in Bulgaria and a large part of Europe is that the real, stable spring will be felt more clearly only in March. Until then, we will live in a "mixed mode" - coat in the morning, a lighter outerwear at lunch; dry streets today and wet snow tomorrow. That is why the forecasters advise not to rush to put away the winter clothes, even on the warmer days towards the end of February.
Sustainable warming - with more sun, less risk of snowfall in the lowlands and higher average temperatures - will most likely be felt on a wider scale precisely in March. Until then, it remains to accept that winter has not yet officially resigned - but is already in the last phase of its term.