Currently, the odds are in favor of El Niño, note climatologists from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). According to them, the ocean and atmosphere are increasingly clearly showing that significant warming in the tropical Pacific is imminent.
El Niño is a natural meteorological phenomenon, part of the "El Niño–Southern Oscillation" (ENSO) system. It develops when warmer-than-usual water spreads beneath the surface across a large part of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This is exactly what is being observed now. Strong westerly wind bursts have pushed huge masses of warm water eastward toward the so-called "Niño 3.4" region, where sea surface temperature – along with other atmospheric indicators – is used to assess the state of ENSO.
In its monthly ENSO forecast from May 14, the Climate Prediction Center at NOAA/National Weather Service gives an 82% probability that El Niño will be present for the May–July 2026 period, which means the phenomenon is expected to fully manifest within the coming weeks.
When is El Niño officially considered to have arrived?
According to specialists, conditions for El Niño are announced when the ocean and atmosphere "work in sync," and the sea surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 zone is at least 0.5 degrees Celsius higher than the seasonal average. Only then can we speak of the official start of the phenomenon.
Experts remind us that just as hurricanes sometimes deviate from the "cone of uncertainty," El Niño can also develop according to a more unexpected scenario. Therefore, preparation for the typical consequences is a sensible step, but one should always keep in mind that forecasts for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation are a matter of probabilities, not absolute certainty.
NOAA is now using the so-called "Relational Ocean Niño Index" (RONI), in which the value for the Niño 3.4 zone is adjusted for the state of the tropical oceans on a global scale. The goal is to prevent the signal for the actual El Niño and La Niña events from being "blurred" by general global warming.
Expectations: from "strong" to potentially "very strong" event
Almost all ensemble seasonal forecasts used by weather agencies around the world currently agree that the upcoming event will lead to warming in the Niño 3.4 zone of at least 1.5 °C above the norm. This places it in the "strong" El Niño category. Some of the averaged forecasts already exceed 2 °C, which would bring it closer to the most powerful events recorded in the NOAA database since 1950.
Individual ensemble members, however, continue to outline a wide range – from a relatively weak to a potentially record-breaking event. Despite this variation, they are almost unanimous regarding one thing: the probability of a significant El Niño is as high as possible. Furthermore, these calculations are based mainly on the traditional index preceding the RONI, which tends to give slightly higher values for recent events.
What is a "super El Niño" – and will we see one?
In 2003, a team of researchers from the Australian scientific organization CSIRO introduced the term "super El Niño" in a scientific paper, using it to describe cases where the temperature deviation in the Niño 3.4 zone reaches at least 3 °C above normal. Since then, the term has been used more loosely in the media and social networks, but remains outside the official vocabulary of most professional forecasters.
"Although 'super El Niño' is sometimes used unofficially, it is not a scientific term," emphasizes senior climatologist Felicity Gamble in a statement from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, which avoids using the term "super" in its forecasts.
A similar approach is followed by NOAA, which classifies events as "weak," "moderate," "strong," and "very strong." Monthly ENSO forecasts now include probabilities for which of these four categories the expected El Niño will fall into. For a "very strong" event, the chance peaks at about 37% in the November–January period.
The probability of El Niño exceeds 90%
If the probabilities for all strength categories are aggregated, NOAA's calculations show that the chance of observing an El Niño – regardless of whether it is weak, moderate, or strong – already exceeds 90% for the period from this summer to the winter of 2026–27.
Against this backdrop, climatologists are urging governments, businesses, and communities to use the time before the full development of the phenomenon to prepare for the typical consequences – from changes in precipitation and temperatures to possible extreme events in different parts of the world. All this with the clear awareness that nature always reserves the right to surprise us.