How Will Bulgaria’s Demographic Decline (≈6.26M in 2025 to ≈6.0M by 2030) Redefine Social Policies and the Economy by 2027?

Bulgaria is entering a critical period of demographic transformation. According to the National Statistical Institute, the country’s population will decline from around 6.26 million in 2025 to nearly 6.0 million by 2030. This is not just a loss in numbers but a significant restructuring of the social and economic model.

Aging and socio-economic challenges

The ratio of workers to retirees is shifting dramatically. Currently, almost 24% of the population is over 65, and young workers are leaving the country in search of better opportunities. This creates pressure on the pension system and healthcare, where staff shortages are already evident.

Reports from the OECD and World Bank warn that without reforms, healthcare spending could rise by 15–20% by 2027, and the pension fund may face deficits.

Possible scenarios by 2027

Scenario A: Moderate adaptation

The government implements policies to gradually raise the retirement age, increase child benefits, and provide incentives for young families. The healthcare system receives targeted funding to attract specialists and optimize services.

Scenario B: Social system crisis

Without decisive reforms, poverty among pensioners deepens, and shortages of medical staff worsen. This could trigger social unrest and growing protests.

Scenario C: Migration-led transition

Through targeted programs, Bulgaria manages to attract skilled migrants and encourage the return of its diaspora. The labor force stabilizes, giving the economy a fresh boost.

Long-term outlook

The demographic decline offers a chance to rethink social policies and shift towards a more sustainable model. Without action, however, negative trends could lead to economic stagnation and loss of competitiveness.

Disclaimer:
This article is an analytical review by the BurgasMedia editorial board and reflects the opinion of an expert group based on current political, economic, and social developments.
The conclusions presented are not predictions or factual statements, but a hypothetical interpretation of possible scenarios.
The publication is not responsible for any discrepancies with future developments and encourages readers to form independent judgments based on verified sources.