Monthly inflation in August 2026 is expected to be 0.6 percent, while annual inflation is projected to reach 5.1 percent, according to preliminary flash estimates from the National Statistical Institute (NSI). For comparison, the forecasts in July were for 0.7 percent monthly and 4.4 percent annual growth, while the final data reported 0.8 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively.
The most significant price increase compared to the previous month is expected in the "Transport" group at 6.3 percent. Growth is also expected in "Personal care, social protection and miscellaneous goods and services" (0.9 percent), "Restaurants and hotels" (0.8 percent), and "Alcoholic beverages and tobacco" (0.8 percent). At the same time, a decrease is expected in "Clothing and footwear" by 2 percent, "Health" by 0.5 percent, and "Food and non-alcoholic beverages" by 0.3 percent.
According to the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, monthly inflation for August is expected to be 0.8 percent, and annual inflation – 5.1 percent. The small basket price index predicts a monthly change of -0.2 percent and an annual change of 1.6 percent.
For the lowest-income 20 percent of households, the following changes in the small basket compared to the previous month are expected: food prices will decrease by 0.4 percent, non-food goods by 0.1 percent, while services will increase in price by 0.1 percent.