The Post-2025 Reality: India in Context
Between January and March 2025, India recorded an impressive 7.4% GDP growth — its highest quarterly figure since early 2024. IMF and World Bank forecast stable 6.3–6.5% annual growth, sharply contrasting with China’s slowing 4.5% growth amid an aging population and rising local government debt.
Demographic Advantage — With an Expiry Date
India currently enjoys a "demographic window" — a period of peak working-age population. But this advantage is expected to fade after 2045. To capitalize on it, India must raise female labor participation, improve education quality, and invest in urbanization and infrastructure.
Internal and External Drivers
- Domestic reforms: Modi’s government pushes deregulation and digitalization, but bureaucratic barriers remain.
- Investment & infrastructure: Ambitious projects in transport and energy sectors are attracting global interest.
- Geopolitical balancing: India navigates relations between the U.S., China, and Russia while maintaining strategic autonomy.
Development Scenarios
- Realistic: 6.5–7% annual growth, partially implemented reforms, moderate use of demographic advantages.
- Optimistic: Strong reforms, tech innovation, and capital inflow push growth above 7.5%.
- Pessimistic: Slow reforms and global tensions limit growth to under 6%.
India as a China Alternative?
While China faces regulatory tightening and economic slowdown, India attracts firms looking to "de-risk" supply chains. But to truly replace China as a manufacturing and tech hub, India must offer legal stability, regulatory transparency, and business-friendly conditions.
Conclusion
India has a genuine opportunity to become a major global growth driver over the next two decades. But it requires bold reforms, long-term vision, and careful geopolitical positioning.
Disclaimer: This article is an analytical review by the BurgasMedia editorial team and reflects expert opinions based on current events. Conclusions are hypothetical and not predictive. The editorial board is not responsible for future deviations and encourages readers to form their own views based on reliable sources.