In Bulgaria, more and more everyday decisions - from where we buy bread to where we order equipment and clothes - go through large chains and online platforms. Today, several food retailers dominate the market for essential goods, and a limited number of digital platforms hold a significant share of online purchases. This brings convenience and scale, but also raises questions: how does the growing concentration affect prices, competition and consumer choice?
"The Big Five" in food trade
Modern trade – hypermarkets, supermarkets and discount chains – continues to increase its share at the expense of small neighborhood stores and traditional markets. In recent years, the revenues of the top five food chains have been growing faster than the market, supported by higher prices, the expansion of the store network and the redirection of consumption towards large formats.
"Lidl" is already the leader in turnover, surpassing "Kaufland". Both chains, part of the same group, are the only food traders in the country with annual turnovers of over BGN 2 billion. The other three companies in the top 5 also report double-digit revenue growth, as they profit from inflation and from the demand for their own brands and "convenient" products.
Concentration and margins: what the regulator says
The Commission for the Protection of Competition did not find direct evidence of cartel agreements between the large chains after the price jump in 2022–2023, but its analyzes show something else: the most serious problems are in the final phase – at retail trade. For some basic food products, markups in the store reach about 90% - goods delivered for BGN 10, pass at the cash register for BGN 17-19.
The regulator also notes the strong bargaining position of the large chains towards hundreds of local producers. Discounts for marketing, logistics and "additional services" are often transferred to the final price. Many suppliers do not submit official signals for fear of losing access to the shelves, which further reinforces the imbalance.
E-commerce: a fragmented market with clearly visible leaders
Online commerce in Bulgaria is growing rapidly and its value is expected to reach several billion leva in the coming years. Nevertheless, the market remains moderately fragmented – the first ten online retailers hold about one fifth of B2C transactions, and the rest is distributed among dozens of smaller sites and stores.
Within this broad picture, clearly dominant platforms stand out. The regional leader "eMAG" holds a leading position in online turnover in Bulgaria, especially for electronics and household goods. Parallel to this, the entry of global platforms intensifies the competitive pressure on local players, but also concentrates the attention and money of consumers in several digital "portals".
"Packaged" services: three telecom operators with almost the entire market
In packaged telecommunication services – Internet, television and telephony – the concentration is even more visible. Three companies – "Vivacom", "A1 Bulgaria" and "Yettel" – hold almost the entire market for combined services by number of subscribers. The number of packaged customers is growing, and with it the dependence of households on several large providers.
This model provides stability and the opportunity for investments in networks and technologies, but leaves little space for smaller operators. In the long term, this may limit choice and reduce the pressure for better prices and conditions for end consumers.
Prices, choice and "the convenience of buying everything from one place"
From the consumer's point of view, large chains and platforms bring undeniable benefits – a large selection, long working hours, loyalty programs, the ability to combine purchases and use home deliveries. Private labels are often cheaper, and promotions are aggressive and well-organized.
At the same time, concentration means that the decisions about prices and which products reach the shelves are made by a small number of companies. If a chain decides not to work with a small local producer, their access to a wide range of customers can be practically cut off. If we get used to shopping "only in the big chain" or "only through the platform", the neighborhood stores and specialized traders find it difficult to withstand the pressure.
What does the growing concentration mean for the future
Economic logic says that a certain degree of concentration brings efficiency – lower costs, better logistics, the possibility for large investments. The Bulgarian experience shows that the large chains and platforms have actually accelerated the modernization of trade: better organization, clearer standards, a wider choice compared to the time when the small shops dominated.
But when the share of a few companies becomes too large, the risks increase – pressure on suppliers, high markups in the absence of real alternatives, "thinning" of competition. The role of regulators is not only to prevent cartels, but also to monitor the structure of the market and to react in case of abuse of market power.
For consumers, the dilemma is clear: the convenience of buying everything in one place versus the desire to have lively neighborhood stores, farmers' markets and independent online retailers. Most likely, the future of Bulgarian retail and services will be a combination of the two – large chains and platforms that set the framework, and niche players who survive with quality, specialization and personal contact. The question is whether regulation and consumer choice will be able to maintain this fragile balance.