The freezing of the agreement between Bulgaria and the Turkish state-owned company "Botas" should by no means be interpreted as a rejection of the Turkish route for natural gas supplies. According to an analysis by Turkish energy expert Gökçe Nur Ataman, cited by BGNES, this is rather a deliberate attempt by Sofia to secure more favorable terms by revising the price and the risks assumed under the original agreement.
The foundations of this agreement were laid in 2023 between Bulgargaz and Botas during a time of acute need, after the interruption of Russian gas supplies forced Bulgaria to urgently seek alternative sources. The contract initially provided for the possibility of transporting natural gas in volumes of up to 1.5 billion cubic meters per year for a period of 13 years, utilizing Turkish infrastructure and specialized liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals.
Although initially perceived as a guarantee for the country's energy security, over time, the contract became a serious financial burden due to its specific payment model. Bulgaria was obligated to pay not only for the quantities of gas actually consumed but also for the pre-booked capacity, regardless of whether it was actually used. In 2025, the then-Energy Minister Zhelyo Stankov warned that a potential unilateral termination of this contract would cost Bulgaria more than 2 billion euros.
The situation changed significantly on July 6, 2026, following a meeting in Ankara between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev. The result of the talks was the signing of a protocol between Botas and Bulgargaz, by which the commercial agreement is frozen for a period of 15 months. During this period, Bulgaria will pay only for the capacity it actually uses, under significantly better commercial parameters. The expert analysis emphasizes that the contract has not been terminated; rather, its commercial structure has been frozen to open the door for a comprehensive renegotiation.
It is important to distinguish between the commercial contract and the operational agreement between Bulgartransgaz and the Turkish operator, which regulates the technical parameters of the Strandzha – Malkoclar interconnection. This infrastructure remains strategically important as it ensures the transport of LNG and Azerbaijani gas not only for the Bulgarian market but for the entire region. Therefore, renegotiating the commercial terms does not mean downplaying Turkey as an energy partner.
As of 2026, the market situation is radically different from that of 2023. Bulgaria now has a wider range of options:
- supplies of Azerbaijani gas;
- access to LNG through terminals in Greece;
- use of regional interconnections;
- available access to Turkish infrastructure.
In conclusion, Bulgaria's actions aim to transform the contract into a more flexible mechanism. Future energy reliance on Turkish infrastructure may decrease if alternative projects are realized, such as the Iran – Armenia – Georgia – Bulgaria route discussed in the past. Until then, 15 months lie ahead, during which it must become clear whether Bulgaria will reduce the capacity used or negotiate better terms for the same access.