A Gallup International Balkan poll puts Iliana Iotova and Kiril Valchev in front ahead of the 25 October presidential election, with 44.9% of those who plan to vote. Andrey Gyurov and Georgi Kandev are second with 24.8%. The agency says these two pairs are the most likely to meet in a run-off.
Kostadin Kostadinov and Petar Volgin are third with 10.9%. Ivan Hristanov and Stoyanka Cherkezova follow with 4.1%, Radostin Vasilev and Krasimir Manov have 2.6%, and Nikolay Nenchev and Tsveta Kirilova 2.1%. Ivaylo Simeonov and Kosyo Stoychev are on 1.7%, and Ivelin Mihaylov and Yuliana Mateeva on 1.6%.
The agency expects between 2.3m and 2.4m people to vote, about 36%. That is fewer than at the last parliamentary election. The big gap between the top two pairs and the rest, together with low turnout, makes a run-off the most likely result.
GERB and DPS have no candidates of their own and say they are not taking part in the race. More than half of their supporters are unlikely to vote. Gallup says they are a large reserve when turnout is low. If they turn out for the second round, they could change the balance and the final result.
The agency's analysts do not expect the first round to decide the second on its own. They say three things will matter: how the voters of knocked-out candidates behave, whether party core supporters who sat out the first round turn out, and whether the two finalists win over undecided and occasional voters.
Among those who are firmly decided, 52.8% chose their candidate before the campaign began and call their vote "traditional". Gallup says this shows stable, loyal core support behind the parties of the leading candidates. The agency says such voters are barely swayed by scandals, leaked compromising material or media rows during the campaign. This gives the candidates of the big parties a steady base.
One in three, or 34.7%, makes a final choice during the campaign. Another 12.5% decide at the very end: 9.8% in the last days and 2.7% on election day. Gallup says these late deciders cannot change the order on their own, but with low turnout they can have an effect. The agency says the campaign does shift opinions and turnout. The leaders' positions look stable, but gaps may change, mostly in the middle of the table.
For 38.9% of people, the candidate's personality decides the vote, not the party behind them. For 24.4%, it is which parties back the candidate. The agency says party backing weighs most with hard-core party supporters. Foreign policy positions and the country's geopolitical direction decide the vote for 15.6%, and the overall election programme for 10.1%. Gallup explains the greater weight of foreign policy by saying that "a large part of society sees the presidential race not only through domestic political issues, but also as a choice about Bulgaria's international position".
Pollsters held 987 face-to-face interviews on tablets between 26 September and 6 October. The sample is nationally representative of Bulgarian adult citizens. Gallup International Balkan paid for the poll from its own funds, and it is part of the agency's independent research programme.