The finance ministry expects the budget deficit to reach €5.2bn by the end of October, or 4% of forecast gross domestic product (GDP). The estimate uses preliminary cash-basis data for the consolidated fiscal programme, which counts money actually paid and collected.
The deficit rose by 1.2 percentage points over the month. At the end of September it was €3.669bn, or 2.8% of GDP, a difference of about €1.5bn.
The ministry said the rise comes from large payments for investment and transfers in October. These topped €1.1bn in that month alone. About €0.6bn was paid from EU funds accounts, of which €0.5bn was under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan. Another €0.5bn or so came from the national budget, including €0.4bn from the defence ministry's budget.
The ministry says much of this spending builds up in the last quarter. The 2026 budget was passed late, the building season is ending, payments are due for military equipment, and projects under the recovery plan are wrapping up.
After the first nine months, the state had spent about half of the capital spending planned for the year. Payments sped up sharply in October. When so much money goes out in one month, spending outruns revenue and a monthly deficit appears, the ministry said.
Revenue, grants and donations at the end of October were €37.5bn, or 75.6% of the yearly forecast. That is €3.4bn (9.9%) more than in the same period of 2025. Tax revenue is up €2.4bn (8.7%) on a year earlier, and grants and donations are up €1.5bn.
Non-tax revenue is down €0.6bn from October 2025, mainly because state-owned companies paid less in dividends.
Spending since the start of the year is €42.7bn, or 75.1% of the yearly forecast. A year earlier it was €37.5bn. The total includes Bulgaria's contribution to the EU budget, which was €1.0bn from the central budget as of 31 October. The ministry said it was paid under current law on the EU's own resources.
Payments for social and health insurance rose most, including pensions, along with staff costs and capital spending. Pensions went up under the Swiss rule on 1 July 2025 and again on 1 July 2026. The minimum wage has been higher since January 2026, and pay was raised to match accumulated inflation for 2025. Spending on recovery plan projects and the Municipal Investment Programme is also growing.
BTA reports that the yearly cash-basis deficit set in the 2026 budget is 5.7%.