The Burgas Chamber of Commerce and Industry (BCCI) says in an analysis that wages in Bulgaria are rising while the number of working-age people is falling. When deciding where to invest, international firms increasingly look for predictable rules, skilled workers and good infrastructure.
"Bulgaria can no longer rely only on being cheaper than other countries," the chamber says. It says productivity, access to funding and the business environment now matter more. Predictable rules, including tax rules, weigh more than anything else. Firms in many sectors struggle to find workers, the analysis says.
One example is the Japanese company Sumitomo Electric Bordnetze SE. Its plant in Mezdra has already closed, and work at Karnobat has been cut back. The company told BTA in early December last year that it will stop work at Karnobat completely in March 2027, affecting about 800 jobs. It blamed high production costs and a sharp rise in labour costs. Part of the production is moving to Moldova and Romania.
The chamber lists other firms that are closing or moving work abroad. Takeaway has stopped work in Bulgaria. Bosch will close its engineering centre in Sofia, where about 670 people work, by mid-2027. In Vratsa, MD Elektronik is closing a plant with about 550 jobs, and production at BTB Bulgaria is stopping, which hits about 400 jobs. Unilever's production at Debelets is moving to Romania, Greece and Turkey. The chamber believes the Takeaway and Bosch decisions were not caused by the proposed tax changes.
The Finance Ministry has proposed a one-off extra tax on 2027 profits in six sectors: banks, insurers, telecoms, big food chains, currency exchange offices and quick-loan firms. For each firm, the ministry would take its average taxable profit for 2020 to 2025 and add 20%. Profit above that level would be taxed at an extra 33%.
The BCCI says that for business the question is not so much how high the tax is, but whether tax policy is predictable and whether firms can trust that the rules will stay stable for a long time. The analysis also quotes Bulgarian National Bank governor Dimitar Radev. He says the method used to work out banks' extra profit mixes periods with very different conditions: the pandemic and near-zero interest rates, then an inflation shock and rising rates. If banks change their capital position, this could affect the terms on which firms borrow, the chamber warns.
The chamber also cites a survey of 83 companies by the German-Bulgarian Chamber of Industry and Commerce. Of these, 70% will keep or increase their investment in Bulgaria, and 77% are not thinking of moving. The firms name low taxes and a stable tax framework as the country's main advantages.
According to the BCCI, Bulgaria still has fairly low taxes, EU membership, a good location, access to the EU single market and a large industrial base. The chamber says the country must create conditions for the next investments in technology, automation, research and development, engineering services and high-productivity manufacturing, as well as in people.